Something to provoke discussion. Just came in from Glass's Information Services:
According to Glass's Market Intelligence Service, the holding of a General Election this May could have a positive impact on new car sales.
Analysis of the new car market over the past 50 years indicates that there was an increase in registrations in all but two of the 13 years in which a General Election was called (see table below). In six of these years, the growth in sales set a new record.
In addition, with just one exception, the actual months in which the last six elections took place saw a distinct uplift in new car sales. The various historical precedents therefore suggest that a sales boost, albeit a temporary one, could be a distinct possibility in 2005.
General Election year Winning political party Registrations
(year-on-year)
1955 Conservative 30%
1959 Conservative 16%
1964 Labour 18%
1966 Labour -5%
1970 Conservative 11%
1974 (February) Labour -24%
1974 (October) Labour (as above)
1979 Conservative 8%
1983 Conservative 15%
1987 Conservative 7%
1992 Conservative 1%
1997 Labour 7%
2001 Labour 10%
It should also be noted that the large fall in registrations during 1974 can at least in part be attributed to the Oil Crisis of that year.
Glass's says that if the pattern of UK new car sales growth during election years is repeated in 2005, it would be less of a negative result than that predicted by most industry analysts, who forecast a modest fall in registrations compared to last year.
"Following the 2003 new car sales peak we saw a slight decline during 2004," commented Alan Cole, Editorial Consultant for Glass's Market Intelligence Service. "Most industry analysts predict a further decline for 2005 but, if history is anything to go by, this year's General Election could possibly make some of the industry's more negative forecasts look slightly
pessimistic."
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Does that mean that Mr.Prescott will be getting a third Jag?
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Cause or effect?
Nah, wily politicos' call the election when the public are feeling good/flush and therefore buying cars, tellies, kitchens etc.
Feb 74 Heath had to call an election on "who runs the country" (govt or unions). 66 and Oct 74 were to remedy minority governments, largesse with the taxpayers money subbing for feel good factor.
And in 92 Major had to go 'cos his five yrs were up.
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Yup they all try and call an election during "feel good" times.
(or actually while its "feel good" and just before "ouch that hurts feel bad" times.)
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Is there any "feel good" left?
SWMBO and I have really cut back on discretionary expenditure lately. No confidence that there won't be more bandit raids on the salary so trying to build a buffer zone (and clear the mortgage) for when the inevitable happens.
If we are typical then the Treasury are in trouble. The UK's economy is strongly consumer-led and any real slowdown in high street spending is going to create big holes in the Exchequer.
And no, neither UK car gets replaced this year.
Not politically motivated, just reality I think.,
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I tend to agree with B.C. in that the current spending run, whereby people have been remortgaging against the increasing value of their properties, has well and truly run into the sand with personal debt standing at well over £1 trillion. We only have to see property prices falling back by 10% to see many people in negative equity, when they need a new car as much as a hole in the head.!!!!
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Sounds like SMMT should sponsor all the political parties, and ensure that an election is held every year. The overall cost of an election is probably under £100 million, so they'd probably need less than 10% of a boost to sales for it all to be profitable.
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Assuming this happens, does anyone have an idea how and when this might affect used car values? I only ask because I'm about to go looking for a new (used) car and if there is an increase in the number of part exchanges will this depress used prices a bit as they work their way through the system? Thanks.
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Wrong time of the year me old fruit, election or no, Used prices always harden in Spring / early summer.
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I hope it does increase car sales cos i'm dead at the mo.
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Sounds logical to me, buy a new motor to get as far away from the politicians (of any persuasion) as you can at election time.
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Yep it doesn't matter who you vote for - the goverment always get in!
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