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If new car sales are well down as appeaers to be the case then surely in the near future the choice of second hand cars will mirror this and presumably push up prices.Thats my take on it...anybody any other thoughts?
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the cars are still being produced at almost the same rate, just not sold. somewhere there in the big warehouse full of them. it will take car companies years to reduce production by 40% (in line with sales).
my guess, prices for almost new cars will drop significantly.
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Production is being cut throughout the car industry. So this will probably feed through to a relative shortage of used vehicles 3 - 4 years old in 3 - 4 years time. Manufacturers cannot buid cars then sell them at a loss for very long without the sort of government help that propped up the British car industry for decades.
HJ
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If you are lucky enough to have the money for a new car I would go into a dealer and negotiate hard or go onto drive the deal of fiatsupersaver for a cracking bargain. As the chap said above there are car parks and warehouses full of them languishing unsold.
I think small runarounds will be like hen's teeth (Things like the little i110 and C1 etc) but will probably see a glut of midrange and large cars on the market. Small Diesel cars are what cause me the most confusion: clean in terms of CO2, very efficient but the fuel is extortionate. Don't know if the demand for my particular car (Fabia VRS) has fallen off because of this. Before the Diesel price differential madness second hand values were very strong.
Edited by Mattbod on 16/11/2008 at 14:25
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I have been looking for a new car since June, am carless and have the cash to buy but I am not seeing substantial drops on new car prices at all and those I see, well, why they might be substantial by car industry standards IMPO they are not in line with the credit crunch - what is it, the worst economy since the Great War.
Personally, I would have to see a whole lot better deals before I buy new.
As for nearly-new used cars, well, that is where the big discounts appears to be. I was looking last night and saw 12 month old low mileage 1.8 T3 Versos for less than 10K. A month ago they were 10.5 to 11K and a few months ago they were 12K plus. Buying a new one simply does not make economic sense - shame the seat bottoms are so short.
I've tried looking at the small car low CO2 sector but the reality is that I can't fit in one. As for CRV size cars - 1 year old ones appear to have come down to 15K and no lower - well, not yet.
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Big beautiful well maintained MOT'd and taxed petrols can ve had at silly silly prices - sub £1k and with £180 to £2000 VED are cheap .
Lots around. Not selling.
I'm checking on ebay as they drop off to see selling prices..
Lexus 300 10 years old, fsh 40k miles £1750...
In anyone's language a bargain.
1998 LS400 110k miles, full lsh, MOT tax etc.. sub £2k..
Old petrol Mercs
Old 300DR Mercedes 1997-99 (with possible rust so beware) under £2.5k.
No sign of shortages...
Lots of unfashionable small Saxos/106s low miles, FSH around £2k or less.
Be picky, choose out of fashion now what was in fashion 10 years ago.. for peanuts.. run for 5 years minimal depreciation...
Minimal style except for Lexus/Mercedex.. but who cares.
About 20 million cars on roads... not going to run out soon.
LOTS of Mercs CLKs for sale : second car no longer affordable ...
Lost of 350SL/500SL immaculate . Lots of E Class 3 litre coupes at silly high prices being dumped no-one will buy cos they are overpriced by a factor of 5.
Buyers' market for 3 years imo.
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I don't there are any pressures in the motoring economy that are likely to exert an upward pressure on used car prices. We have a contracting economy, collapsing property market and rising unemployment.
Some say used car prices levels will be sustained by people putting off buying new cars.
But at the othere end of the scale there will be a few people who decide, on economic grounds, to give up running a car altogether. Not many, but there will be a lot more multi-car households who give up having a second car or third car.
Edited by Sofa Spud on 16/11/2008 at 19:20
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As more people lose their jobs, getting rid of a car thats costing X hundred per month must be an option, however do they replace it with an older model, and will that push up prices for those types of cars, or will the car bought now for a grand get sold on in 5 years for the same price?
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As more people lose their jobs ..........
In the long term, at the end of the day, all other things being equal and given a level playing field, it's inevitable that we need a mandate for survival. If we're on a 3-way street we really need to push the envelope and take a blue sky approach. Let's park that online for a moment and think outside the box. Low hanging fruit at the close of play will give us 360° feedback, and provided we think big and are singing from the same hymn sheet we'll raise the red flag up the flagpole to see which way the wind blows it.
;-)
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I had a boss in the '80s who used to speak like that. They fired him eventually. Didn't have a clue.
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Let's step up to the plate then...
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Only once you've run it up the flagpole to see if anyone salutes...
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Good for playing bingo in meetings though.
Edited by Dynamic Dave on 31/12/2008 at 01:03
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The original poster and HJ back in November must be right though. Less new cars sold equates to fewer second hand in the future. I suppose when/if the fields of new cars are sold at a discount then this might make something of a difference.
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Good for playing bingo in meetings though.
yes but i always draw "paradigm shift" and that's gone right out of fashion.
Edited by Dynamic Dave on 31/12/2008 at 01:03
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So AE is using paradigms just throwing your 2 cents in then? ;-)
I'll get me coat.
Although technically would be 20 cents before I am corrected.
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It's interesting reading this 2 1/2 years on. There do genuinely seem to be a shortage of 08 and 58 plate cars around.
I've been looking for an 18-month to 2-year old medium sized family hatchback/estate. whilst there are plenty of 56, 07 and some 57 plate models around, the number of 08 and 58 plate cars is few in comparison.
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Is it because people are holding on to their cars longer now with what has happened,i know i am.
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Maybe if the Government hadnt scrapped 200,000 perfectly usable, driveable servicable used cars then the used market wouldnt be so tough.
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being produced at the same rate?..... how do you explain the long waiting lists for cars a t the moment, if they were parked in a big warehouse then there would be virtually no wait yet my Alfa is 20weeks Audi A3 is being quoted for Jan 2012 build date and the X3 a 10 month waiting list.
Now maybe cars are rolling out of the factory but they are not right hand drive models for the UK market as there is little profit in the UK market at the moment.. so a reduction in cars for the uk market means limited supply a few years down the line and an increase in used prices..
or have I missed something?
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