.........or better to wait until the new year?
There are some very good deals out there just now, but what will happen to the used car market as we move through 2009?
Will there be better deals come Jan/Feb due to the impending '09' registration?
Or better to hang off for a good 12 months if one wishes to really clean up?
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If you're selling as well, it's all relative.
If I was buying but not selling I'd wait at least six months, or rather not even look for six months and then start looking at where prices are going.
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I'm talking about just buying, the car I have ain't worth much anyways.
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In normal times, December always is a good time to buy.
If you need a new car (for example because your current one is costing too much in repairs) go ahead and do it.
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An interesting factor which has been mentioned elsewhere is the effect of the slowdown in new car purchases.
This could have any number of influences on the second hand market. One of which could be that it might create a shortage of good second hand stock in due course.
If people/companies simply decide to hang on to their existing cars for longer this might, paradoxically, firm up their values in time. Hard to say for sure really.
There does come a point though for many people where they will take a view that provided their current car is proving reliable, they will not want to sell it for loose change.
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And also mentioned elsewhere is the effect of $? to £ exchange rates. As many cars are manufactured in $? zones the new prices could go up by 25%! It has been suggested that Japan sourced Sony TVs could go up by 33%
tinyurl.com/5z46bb
So whilst existing stocks may hold the discounted price a new factory built order may work out very expensive!
Edited by pmh2 on 07/12/2008 at 11:48
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A shared quandry Wilfred though I won't bore you with my own Focus-centric details. I think Mr Backbridge has a good point about used car prices increasing in the near future.
As a non-expert in the car market I get the impression that NOW is very much the time to get a really good value used car. I wonder if anyone could back this up?
Edited by FocusDriver on 07/12/2008 at 12:17
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Well it's always got to a balance between getting a good deal and moving on with your life if you have a specific need to change. As seen in other threads we are trying to do a modest change now and we will only buy something that is a good deal. But even if the deals were looking better in a years time when the country is on its knees we would have lost a whole year's benefits that the new car will bring. If changing is not a need but a whim then waiting can't do any harm.
We are looking at an up to £5k medium hatch with (probably) a diesel engine. It does rather seem folks are holding onto such cars while they wait to see what 2009 and beyond brings. On the other hand if we wanted a bigger petrol car the choice is enormous at low prices.
David
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Read auction reports on this site.
Supercar auction tomorrow. Quite a lot of Aston Martins.
HJ
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I'm looking forwards to teh auction report on that one, hope you're going to be there HJ
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As a Toyota Dealer these are my thoughts on the subject ... however at best these are an educated guess as even us "experts" have never seen a market like this.
I dont think they will go up in price or not to the same extent they have dropped these last 5 months or so.
What Im sure you will see is a dire lack of choice out there the reasons being mainly due to people not buying new and therefore a lack of PX's available.
People will be out buying in the New Year from about Feb / March onwards after the Christmas bills have landed.
Bear in mind the dramatic interest rate drops of late this will make people feel better off when their mortgage payments drop plus the older generation with savings will be more tempted to spend it as their returns will also be lower.
Ive said this in a previous post last week but never have cars been as cheap to buy .... so long as you have the cash ! or access to an affordable loan.
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Bear in mind the dramatic interest rate drops of late this will make people feel better off when their mortgage payments drop plus the older generation with savings will be more tempted to spend it as their returns will also be lower.
BoE rate cut will make only a small number of people better off (who are on base rate tracker and majority are on fixed deals). Also, I don't understand how older generation will be tempted to spend more! Their savings return is diminishing. Should they not hold off all but essential purchases?
Unfortunately, job losses in 2009 will be huge :( That will have catastrophic effect in consumer spending.
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MEGA Snipquote!!!!!!!
Ive said this in a previous post last week but never have cars been as cheap to buy .... so long as you have the cash ! or access to an affordable loan.
You really don't get Deflation do you?
Edited by Dynamic Dave on 08/12/2008 at 13:44
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You really don't get Deflation do you?
tawse: and it seems you don't get the very first post at the top of this forum:
www.honestjohn.co.uk/forum/post/index.htm?f=2&t=42...2
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Thanks jbif. Beat me to it. Will shortly be just deleting posts where people can't be bothered to snip/summarise as it's a lot quicker than editing.
DD.
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>>Also, I don't understand how older generation will be tempted to spend more! Their savings return is diminishing. Should they not hold off all but essential purchases?
post 11 ..... Yes but I was referring to the wealthy type of pensioner ... the ones that have a lot of money saved up with good pensions ...
>>You really don't get Deflation do you? ..... errrm no I dont but then again I am rather simple and poorly educated...
I am however prepared to be educated.
Then again I do see what is happening at the sharp end on a daily basis and thats what I based my perhaps over simplistic thoughts / ideas on.
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People will be out buying in the New Year from about Feb / March onwards
Questions which is difficult to answer is: Will there be enough new buyers of new cars though?
Other imponderables are:
How are the costs/prices of new cars going to change in 2009? If made in UK, how much input is there from foreign sourced raw materials or parts? How much will costs/prices rise due to the slump in £ value.
Will people be tempted to buy cars when they cannot reliably predict running costs on a long-term basis [because politicians meddle with duty and VED rates, and OPEC and the stock-market play havoc with oil prices on a very short time scale].
Will people have more disposable income after their home-energy bills have stabilised?
Will people have more disposable income after their food bills have stabilised?
When will council rates stop rising at 5% to 10% per annum [most of the rises are to meet increasing policing bills, environmental protection and rubbish disposal costs, plus inexorable rise in cost of paying index-linked pensions to retired employees].
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Interesting thoughts niceguyeddy - from a dealer at the sharp end too. I'd be tempted to overlook tawse and his abbreviated negativism since you're probably better placed to give a forecast.
Also, different people place varying emphases on their car as an accessory or necessity. I've lost count of the number of very averagely-off people who trade in their 6 year old car for a 2 year old one even though their old car is still good for years. People do seem willing to really stretch themselves for a nice shiny motor!
"Ive said this in a previous post last week but never have cars been as cheap to buy..."
Well it's goof to hear it from the horse's mouth. Just looking on Cargiant - an 07 Focus Zetec Climate for 5k. Astonishing. I hope it lasts for another 12 months!
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>>People do seem willing to really stretch themselves for a nice shiny motor!
Yes they do ....... including my Mr's..
We are lucky to have took a tracker mortgage last year and now a few hundred quid a month better off however she now thinks her 7 year old corolla thats just had a new engine is too old !! says she wants a new car with what we are now saving on mortgage !!
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she wants a new car with what we are now saving on mortgage
That's what govt. want all of us to do - spend :)
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>>>>>Just looking on Cargiant - an 07 Focus Zetec Climate for 5k. Astonishing. I hope it lasts for another 12 months
Now that's interesting... our local dealers have no newer shape Focus/Astras under £6000+.
David
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Today's supercar auction results up on site. Click from list on right or on:
www.honestjohn.co.uk/news/item.htm?id=5516
Plenty of more ordinary cars in the list as well.
HJ
Edited by Honestjohn on 08/12/2008 at 16:38
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imagine what a 3 or 4 year old big lumbering jag, say, would be at auction next year, when people's perception of them really changes. When all people see when they look at that kind of car is fuel, fuel, fuel, and insane repair bills. What if the market determines that they really have hardly any value?
A prominent economist called this credit business the "black swan" effect. (he also predicted it.) I'm sure a fellow poster will remember his name. His next prediction is the ageing population. Did anyone know that Greek women are currently reproducing at about 1.5 each? That's a death spiral ending in about four generations.
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Honest John:
Thanks for coming back to post that link. I scrolled through the list of auction prices and, before I read your bit about that 2003 Yaris for £3.5k, I saw it and furrowed my brow deeply. Quite shocking I thought. But I suppose even these older models have their die-hard fans. A car's worth what someone's prepared to pay for it and all that...
BTW, your Telegraph column's shrunk this week. Let's hope the status quo is reinstated next time. I refused to read the extra article on principle!
MM:
"our local dealers have no newer shape Focus/Astras under £6000+."
Yes, I think I might have omitted to mention that one was quite a high miler. Sorry, quite important info.
Well Cargiant (with whom I have no connection) has been recommended by HJ in his Sat Telegraph column on and off over the past few years. I'm addicted to looking at the site because I'm a bit sad but you can see prices going down at the moment and today they might have 100 Ford Focus, tomorrow only 30, but they'll get a fresh batch in the next day! They don't give you discounts if you haggle but do sell at cheaper rates than local dealers - the stack 'em high and sell em cheap philosophy I suppose. Well worth sticking in your favourites.
One work colleague of mine had terrible trouble with a Jaguar X-type and they were very good about it indeed. They offered first to fix the car and then, when he threw a bit of a wobbly, they just refunded him with very little fuss. I shall be buying my next car from there. It's in White City though, not very handy for Jct 8 on the M25.
niceguyeddy:
lol - she's a canny lass! I have no sympathy though, my Focus is NINE years old, but still driving like an absolute dream even from VERY cold. I'm looking at newer model Focuses and also have a bit of a penchant for new Toyotas, in my layman's view, brilliance on wheels :) Love the Aygo, love the new Yaris and the IQ.
It's your fault - your wife married a Toyota dealer. Free Toyotas!
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Two things strike me about the current market situation...
1. If everyone holds off buying a new car because a 2nd hand one is better value then the supply of new cars will reduce and then in the future so will the supply of 2nd hand ones. It is necessary for the new market to keep going for there to be a 2nd hand market therefore all the talk of delaying everything is a moot point because if you squeeze everything to leave nothing then there is nothing to sustain what is left. That's not to say that I don't like value as much as the next person but expecting a car at below cost price has only one end and it doesn't help any of us.
2. Lots of people are looking on a car as an investment and aiming for what the value might be in a few years time when they come to sell it. If it's a generic eurobox then ok, but if it's a car with a bit of character like a Jaguar XK or something, then it doesn't matter whether it depreciates like mad because in three years time it will be a special car still, and the same in ten.
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I can go with what cjehuk is saying.
If the new market shrinks, then the economy picks up again, used car prices will rise considerably.
'O' level economics: supply and demand. Plus the lessons of recent history.
As for his second point, I don't think the world is going to get back into gas guzzlers, so the investments may be cars like MINI Cooper diesels, Toyota Prius, new Honda Integra, decent to drive low CO2 cars like the IQ and Fiesta ECOnetic.
Glass's Guide recently rated the old MINI One 1.4 diesel as the lowest depreciator.
HJ
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well hang on cjehuk.. how can a car be an investment if it depreciates like mad but still has a bit of character? I don't often say this, but.... ROFL
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That was my badly made point. No car is ever an investment but if you love driving it and love having it and owning it, then it doesn't matter how many thousands of pounds that car lost because of the pleasure it gave you. People spend £5k on a holiday for 2 weeks happily. I'd rather spend that on depreciation on a Jaguar XK... you pays your money, you takes your choice but the idea that a car is bad just because it depreciates heavily is naieve.
I apologise for not having made my point clearly.
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