The biggest problem the economy has at the moment is that the banks are under capitalised.
By cutting base rates, the government allows the banks to make more profit and improve their capital ratios, that in turn will allow them to start lending again, which should hopefully kick-start the economy.
Hown owners saving a few quid on their mortgages is just a side benefit
MVP
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By cutting base rates the government allows the banks to make more profit and
err no. lower rates means LESS bank profits. Which is why the banks are not passing them on. Rate cuts is not the answer.
There are two ways out of this.
Let things happen naturally, - takes a while tho.
The fast way is:
Large capital projects spending. New railways, roads, bridges, powerstations, social housing, infrastructure. Costs money yes but alas he has thown money away on vat rate cuts, and other frivolous matters.
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Japan had zero interest rates for 10 years and that still didnt work, they only climbed out of recession recently (after a similar property boom&bust to that we have experienced here in the uk)
Sterlings decline merely reflects what foreign investors think of the prospects for the British economy dont let them kid you its because our interest rates are now a few percentage points below the eurozone
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"Well, I am sitting here pondering what to do. 50% of my purchase orders are to the Eurozone, 10% US Dollar and the rest Stirling. some of my Euro suppliers who have also had sterling accounts are closing them so this means even more bank/currency costs to pay these suppliers."
Offer your Eurozone customers a Euro-price list. Perhaps a bit late now, but if you had done so when it was at £1 = ?1.47.....
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Presumably this thread is being allowed to run because of who the OP is?
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Presumably this thread is being allowed to run because of who the OP is?
I think the OP may have said something like this on previous occasions, "Its my ball and I set the rules. If you don't like it, go play elsewhere with someone else's ball."
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Its a valid thread because its the underlying cause of the parlous state of the motoring industry.
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I'm not saying the thread is invalid. Lots of well made comments and it hasn't deteriorated into a slanging match - yet.
Point is, it wouldn't have been allowed to run if HJ wasn't the OP. But the world isn't a fair place anyway ;-)
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Point is, it wouldn't have been allowed to run if HJ wasn't the OP
There are a few other similar threads that have been running [i.e. not yet locked] over the last few months, where HJ was not the OP.
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The UK based mass market manufacturers must be rubbing their hands in glee though - the exports of MINIs Nissans and Hondas should be earning a good profit.
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I wouldn't call myself religious but I had to agree with the group of bishops who released a statement at Xmas time against the Government.
What they were basically saying is the Govt is wrong to tell everyone to spend their way out the recession but instead, should be spreading the message that you can't always get what you want!
Too many people rely on credit to give them a lifestyle that they can't really afford, to keep up with the neighbours because of the materialistic society we live in. A perfect example of this is I have recently been looking into the pros and cons of Plasma / LCD tvs. Through doing this I have increased my knowledge drastically and over the Festive period, through visiting family and friends I have paid attention to what TVS they have and why!
In almost every case, they bought it cos it looked good, and one wanted her neighbours to be able to see it on her living room wall when they drove past! Not one of them had a good contrast ratio etc etc that would make them any better than the TV they had before!
I suppose with many of us this may also be directed at cars and why we purchase them. Is it for appearance, for the latest registration number?
Finally, my last rant on the subject, for years we have heard of rip-off Britain. In summer I was in France, where we have always traditionally marvelled at all the cheap prices and variety of items that we could get at the Hypermarkets. This year they were dearer and sold very little that you wouldn't get in a Tesco Extra over here. Now we are seeing, as AE said above, companies going to the wall which were not making profits and being kept afloat through credit which banks are no longer willing to offer.
Its maybe time that "rip-off Britain" became "Reality Britain" and woke up to the fact that things cannot go on. Yes, as a consumer you can buy a T-shirt for £1 now in the supermarkets and Primarks of the world, but where are they being made? What production is happening in Britain now? A litre of petrol is about 90p, a 500ml bottle of Coca-Cola is 88p in my supermarket? Which ones the rip-off?
This current recession will hopefully weed out a few property dealers who, by their actions, have artificially pushed up prices, values and homeowners debts. We will also see countless businesses and factories close. However, with Woolworths going to the wall, I see that as the definite end to the town centre High St. I can think of a few Woolies near me which were the only brand name on the High St and it was believed that they attracted local businesses to adjacent units. Whether they survive, I don't know. But the winners out of all this will be the Supermarket Retailers. Yes their figures might be poorer just now but by summer they will have more of a Monopoly than they have ever done.
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Cutting the rate further seems futile when a lot of banks and BSs are collaring the rates anyway (mine is collared at 3% currently)
Dropping the VAT and the pathetic 'holiday' on stamp duty are a waste of time. They'll not stimulate any market.
Abolishing stamp duty under £500k and taking the 5% VAT off fuel (i.e gas/electric) and reducing the VAT on petrol etc might encourage a bit of spending - not silly soundbite half measures.
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Untill they slash public spending and get a balanced budget its all immaterial
.*********
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Due to the rate cutting so far, my mortgage payments have reduced by £164 per month. Its a tracker that currently stands at 2.27 per cent!
So, practically, that is 164 quid extra that I might (!) spend in the shops or getting a bit of the car fixed that might otherwise have waited till another time.
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Due to the rate cutting so far my mortgage payments have reduced by £164 per month.
So practically that is 164 quid extra that I might (!) spend in the shops
I personally would increase my mortgage repayments by £164 per month, and pay it off quicker.
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This year will be a good time to get into shares. In every recession/depression, including the big pre-war crash, the stock market regained 80% of the pre-crash value within 18-24 months. Everyone focuses on the x years it took to get back to where it was. Pick sound companies with little debt in the right sectors and it's almost a one-way bet.
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I agree with nick - especially as the herd will be moving in the other direction - always a sure sign things are turning a corner - just be careful what shares you pick.
Or you all have face like my kids when they opened their woollies vouchers on Christmas morning. (Sorry guys - I know it has done the rounds but....)
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should be spreading the message that you can't always get what you want!
Then people can't buy Jaguar, Aston Martin etc. and tax payers need to bail out these manufacturers.
We lose both ways!
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"..The UK based mass market manufacturers must be rubbing their hands in glee though - the exports of MINIs Nissans and Hondas should be earning a good profit..."
The UK-based "assemblers" are having to import a large percentage of their parts from abroad - so I imagine it's a zero-sum game.
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We all know that these are short term measures and that sooner rather than later the government will do its best to claw back the money.
What we need are long term commitments from the government. Public spending, waste and squandering tackling immediately.
Until that time there will be no confidence and people will be keeping their money in the bank.
Its strange that overspending got us into this mess in the first place and yet the government is trying to get us to spend our way out of it. I know that is rather a simplistic view but that is how it appears.
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Not simplistic at all fullchat
The government is in a strange position re the banks too, trying to lay the blame for all the countries woes on the banks reckless behaviour, too much lending, not enough saving, yet they are also strong arming them into lending again at 07 levels
Besides which any govt that runs a 20% budget deficit is in hardly the position to criticise others on how they run things :-)
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Brown is still obssessed with saving the 1 million bad mortgages, either people who have been greedy trying to flip houses or people who have been greedy with buy-to-let, but he does not yet seem to have cottoned on to the fact that 10 million prudent savers are now being punished to help the feckless and the greedy. The prudent savers are also from a demographic more likely to turn out to vote.
Brown seems to think that by saving the 1 million greedy bad mortgage holders that he will somehow stay in No. 10. When the history of this depression is written I think this particular move will go down as one of the fundamental mistakes that actually worsened and prolonged the recession.
Of course, by trying to focus everything on house prices Brown thinks he can get away with blaming all the problems on the US subprime housing market even though the 9 or 10 times mortgages our banks have been lending out, the interest only mortgages and the buy-to-let pyramids have forced up our house prices to unsustainable levels and now - POP!
I notice in another paper that shall remain nameless that Professor Andrew Oswald has an interesting article today. He is an Economics Professor of some note and he says today that 2009 is going to be a really bad year for anyone associated with the car industry. He has his own website and his article on the 'economics' of happiness is well worth a read.
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Brown is still obssessed with saving the 1 million bad mortgages
If people can't repay their mortgages, their homes will be re-possessed.
These people will then need to be provided with social/council housing!
But government don't have enough houses for them!
So McBroon is determined to prevent this. That's the reason you see rules like banks can't repossess for 2 years at least etc. there is a caveat in this rule that if you have more than £16k savings, you won't be eligible for it. And in this rule, you can defer INTEREST for 2 years - so you'll still be paying principle.
Note that it will only benefit those people who took interest only mortgage (and can't even pay this back)
The number of these people are quite high compared to "sensible" people who lived within their means and did not borrow money for everything. But number of these sensible people are much less compared to other category.
When voting time comes, the result will be determined by these non-sensible people.
So, why do you think savers will be rewarded?
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To be fair, many people will be unable to pay their mortgage due to the loss of their job
In times of growth and with a healthy property market those people would normally be able to sell and downsize or rent
We now have that horrible situation where you cannot sell your home even if you want to, I feel very sorry for them it must be almost the worst thing imaginable the bailiffs turning up and being kicked out of your house and home
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Yep, the coming year will be nasty for a great many people. It is going to be miserable for many and will cause a tremendous amount of heartache and misery.
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Because, simply, the prudent savers outnumber the feckless borrowers by 10 to 1 and this has been shown repeatedly by numerous economists appearing on TV and Radio in the past fortnight, by the banks own figures and by business journalists who have looked at the figures.
It is not me. It is all the above.
Of course, you might live in some conspiracy World where you do not believe countless people saying the same thing but I don't so I read, I listen, I watch and then I make up my own mind.
Even Saint Vincent of Cable has finally twigged and hence the Libs have down a complete 180 degree turn in the past week, are no longer talking about saving bad debt mortgagees or trying to keep up house prices, and are now constantly talking about the importance of looking after the savers.
Increasingly,Labour MPs are saying the same thing as they realise, after seeing the info for themselves, that there are more votes in savers than in the feckless for the very simple reason that, ahem, there are more savers who have been prudent than there have been people buying houses they cannot afford on mortgages they cannot afford and then MEWing to buy the big cars, the holidays, the electronic goods and even the wife's boob jobs!
Hence why this morning Cameron has announced plans not to tax savings any more for 20% tax payers - he has announced this because there are votes in it and there are more votes in looking after the savers than looking after the feckless in debt. Yes, I know that I am repeating myself but I just feel I should - at the end of the day all politicians look to where the votes are and, as I said, there is a big swing now in all 3 main parties towards the interests of the savers for the reason already mentioned - VOTES!
The penny has dropped with Cable, the Lib Dems, Cameron, the Tories, slightly brighter Labour types, many of the World's top economists and even some not so dim business journos who aren't towing Brown's line. Heck, The Telegraph has had several articles pointing this out in recent weeks and was ahead of the curve leading where others are now following.
Of course, you can continue to argue against all the above or just believe that you are right and that ALL of the above are wrong but, heck, you can have that conversation with yourself :-)
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>>Yep, the coming year will be nasty for a great many people. It is going to be miserable for many and will cause a tremendous amount of heartache and misery.
I agree and when Brown's not so cunningly thought out plans fail to deliver anything remotely resembling a bottoming out let alone a turn around of the situation then all that heartache and misery could well manifest itself in some serious un-British like civil unrest. How many people will have to be made redundant or be kicked out of their homes before it boils over? When it does, it won't take much to trigger it, 10p on a litre of fuel, personal tax thresholds altered, MPs pay rise or dodgy holiday abroad at the home of CEO of rescued bank or car manufacturer. First was Greece, who's next?
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I think that is why the tories are being fairly quiet although I do like their latest proposal on cutting savings tax for basic tax payers. I think they are quiet as this will come home soon to haunt Darling and Brown having wasted £12,5Bn on a VAT reduction. None of what the government is doing is having an impact because they are doing it all wrong IMO. Getting into debt has caused this problem and Brown's way out is to get even deeper into debt. Unfortunately he is now telling the banks to lend more although behind closed doors he has told them all to return to profit quickly so he can offload our shares. The Banking seniors are public enemy number 1 at the moment but even I can understand them over lending. That is the thing with Brown and his cheap clichés - he is doing everything to be fair to Britain's hard working families - after fleecing us for 10 years and also telling the banks to milk us for as much profit as they can so he can sell the shares and tell us all his grand plan has worked.
Interest rate reductions are proving to be a complete waste of time. They can reduce them to zero if they like but the banks and building societies will use it as an opportunity to profit from us although I do not know what the LIBOR rate is at the moment. I guess it is still high as the Banks all see themselves as high risk.
You also have to remember (and good luck to those on trackers although they will not lower them any more than current rates) that not long ago Brown was urging people to fix their mortgages - so what does he want people to do ????? I really need some help in understanding him please.
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With all this financial doom and gloom though if it interests anyone, I have just taken ownership of a Citi Bank Shell credit card that offers 3% cashback (well - in the form of Shell petrol vouchers) on Shell fuel purchases and 1% on everything else. It pays double for the first 60 days. I am not a financial advisor but by using this for monthly expenditure - food and fuel etc and paying it off each month I am building up a tidy sum of Shell fuel vouchers. As someone once said - every little helps.
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The governments approach reminds me of a scene from The Simpsons when Homer, Chief Wiggum and others are stuck in a hole.
"How are we going to get out of here?"
"We'll DIG ourselves out!"
"Great idea!"
...
"No no dig UP, stupid!"
Childish maybe but that really is the mental image I have! :-)
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>>I am not a financial advisor but by using this for monthly expenditure - food and fuel etc and paying it off each month I am building up a tidy sum of Shell fuel vouchers
I took out a Sainsburys credit card - 0% for first 12 months on Sainsburys food and fuel. I just pay the minimum amount and each month whatever the statement total is I stick into Premium Bonds. I didn't see the point in leaving it in the bank earning diddly squat interest and don't want the risk (even though it might be a good time) of putting it in ISAs or shares. I'll cash in the bonds at the end of the interest free period and with the regular and lucrative winnings I'll be quids in ;-)
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That is a good idea as well to use 0% in this way - I genuinely hope you get the jackpot as well Neil.
Remember how nice I have just been to you if you do though !!!!!!!!!!! :-)
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........... taking the 5% VAT off fuel (i.e gas/electric)
What about the VAT on heating oil? Lots of people don't have gas.
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5% vat on fuel is the lowest rate the european union will allow, and as such cannot be removed.
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Effect of Sterling devaluation finally reported at:-
tiny.cc/qH6fo
HJ
Edited by Honestjohn on 06/01/2009 at 08:55
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I think GB should be trying to encourage the growth of the manufacturing industry in this country rather than encouraging spending our way out... at least that will have some use when things start to get better (whenever that is)... the more I see of GB's performances on the box (Andrew Marr's interview being the latest) the more I despair for our future.... desperation rules, ok!
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Those buying in foreign currency are having profits reduced and those selling in foreign currency are having profits increased.
There's a surprise ....
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Any explanation why the pound has improved 5% to ?1.10 in the last 24 hours? Does the market know something?
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One of the reasons the pound has recovered a little is because Europe inflation is down by a bigger margin than forecast.
As a result Euro countries base rates can now go lower and the Euro not as attractive as before
Edited by massey on 06/01/2009 at 10:42
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Yes, only a matter of time before Euro falls. Germany is in big doo doo and Spain, Italy and Greece are basket cases.
I mean, can you imagine Brown spending millios to buy up all the Yorkshire pork pies to save the pork pie industry or buying up every piece of cheddar for similar reasons?
That is what Italy is doing with cheese and pasta.
Spain is just toast - probably those nice small bits of toast on which you have sardines or a bit of cheese - but toast nonetheless. Housing market has tanked, car sales have halved and unemployment is like 1980s UK.
France - big denial, heavily unionised although it means it is darn hard to fire anyone. Housing market crashing big time as no Brits to buy broken old barns anymore.
Result will be crashing inflation in the Eurozone which will result in the Euro tanking.
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That's slightly better news, colinh and massey. Thank you. But what will happen if they cut UK base rates again?
HJ
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No surprise there. The pound has been massively over-sold. I'm not buying Euros for my skiing holiday until the second I go (whenever that will be) in the hope that the Euro returns towards 1.20-1.30 before then.
The Euro has plenty of time to explode under the pressure.
And HJ, if they cut interest rates again... interest rates have little to do with it at the moment. Gilts are still yielding 3/4% - not 1%.
Edited by Mapmaker on 06/01/2009 at 13:55
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From my observations & readings on the Euro/Pound 'debate' - or whether the £ is doomed - is that the unwindings required for the Euro to reach a transparent market value are further off and hence not 'priced' in to the exchange rate yet.
In a nutshell, the southern Europeans latin countries & several of the former eastern block joiners will pull the Euro (..and its centralised fiscal/monetary policy) every which way with competing & contradictory imperatives. That is, the Germans might think themselves better off out of the Euro, or cause such tightening of policy that the weaker (aforementioned) states will crash & burn.
The good ol' Pound has simply lost its lustre sooner - don't worry the Euro soon will!
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Cutting rates by 1% when they are at about5% might produce some effect in normal times. But when rates are already down to virtually nil the same effect can't possibly work.
In short, they have run out of ammunition for this particular weapon.
There might have been some money around for large scale capital investment in real projects if they hadn't squandered it all on buying a busted building society and gold-plated public sector pensions.
My recipe is they need to slash taxation. Halve income tax and council tax, abolish corporation tax. Then cut public expenditure by whatever this needs, starting with public sector pensions. They should simply confiscate those multi-million pound pots the same as they did for private sector pensions.
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Halve income tax : cost £75 billion
Abolish corporation tax : cost £45 billion
Half council tax : cost £12 billion
Total cost : £132 billion
That's about 25% of government expenditure - the same amount is spent on all benefits - now there's an idea .....
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the same amount is spent on all benefits - now there's an idea
Ok, stop all benefits. Now who are going to vote me? :o)
You may wonder why govt. can't do that. The reason is, there are some "pressure groups" who demand benefits system to stay.
Those who want to abolish benefits are not organized, on the other hand (we don't do anything else other than discussing this on online forums).
If you read the book "Naked Economics" - it explains the process.
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A system of limited benefits and severly limited free healthcare seems to work exceedingly poorly in inner-city America. Terrible idea.
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A rate cut of 1% by the February meeting is already effectively priced into the market - the real debate is will rates fall lower than that - and how long the low rates will remain.
As to pricing of loans we live in a free market, currently demand outstrips supply and so prices will not decrease.
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"The good ol' Pound has simply lost its lustre sooner - don't worry the Euro soon will! "
How soon though? - cos i`m going to some in around 3 months.
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There was an article in Forbes Magazine, some months ago, saying that the Euro would be no more in the not so distant future. The author argued that the German public wanted to see a return to the D.Mark, and Spain needed to withdraw because its economy was heading for disaster, and there was nio means of devaluing the currency to meet Spain's needs.
It's interesting that contributors to the mail and Telegraph are forecasting the demise of the Euro.
Edited by Robbie on 06/01/2009 at 15:30
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My solution, as the Irishman said, is "I wouldn't start from here."
However, this is where we are.
1. Slash public-sector spending.
2. Increase taxation - raising VAT to 25% would be a good start (as we've seen, tinkering with VAT has no effect on people's spending).
Then pay down debt.
Then, when we've all suffered properly from the excesses we have been through, slash public-sector spending further, and cut taxes - probably raising VAT to 27.5%.
Abolish IHT (on the grounds it doesn't collect any cash); abolish NI & incorporate it with IT at a flat rate of 30% for all; abolish Stamp in all its forms (on the grounds that it hinders free movement of "human capital") - and put a load of my profession out of jobs. (Abolish the schedular system, apply tax to unadjusted PBT rather than all this faffing around we have to do, and make tax a whole load simpler and make yet more tax accountants redundant.) Fortunately this will never happen...
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However, this is where we are. 1. Slash public-sector spending. .... ...
.... and make tax a whole load simpler and make yet more tax accountants redundant.) Fortunately this will never happen... >>
That's about 25% of government expenditure - the same amount is spent on all benefits - now there's an idea ..... >>
I think taxing spending, but allowing a decent level of tax-free earnings and rewarding savings is the way to go.
Combining Mapmaker's idea with hxj's idea. Remove all current benefits, but instead give every adult in the UK a tax free handout of £12,000 a year [£1000 a month, roughly equal to minimum wage], plus child benefit for 1st child of £3000, 2nd child of £2000, 3rd child of £1000, and no more after that. Then tax first [say] £100,000 of income at [say] 30%, and anything above at [say] 50%. Abolish all other taxation except VAT, and raise that to 30% [clothes, food and first £1000 worth of heating fuel to be free of VAT]. Road tax VED to be removed as the rise in VAT on petrol/diesel would recoup that. [motoring connection underlined].
Similarly change Council Tax system, and apportion costs of maintaining local roads & street lighting from central funds based on traffic data. Make users pay for the services they use. Schools and Universities to be funded via vouchers given to the pupils/students, allowing them to choose which Institution gets their voucher.
Pensions. The above scheme means everyone gets a basic £12k tax free, whether young or old. Abolish final salary pensions for all [private and state] but for any additional job-related Pensions provision, force everyone to contribute a minimum to a stakeholder pension and allow them to top it up through employer or employee contributions.
No doubt it would need great deal of work to get the figures right to make it all work, but IMO something along those lines may be a fairer system than the current one where no individual feels responsible for the costs incurred on their behalf by the Government.
Edited by jbif on 06/01/2009 at 16:51
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Firstly it wasn't my idea to abolish benefits, it was simply an illustrative example.
The trouble with your scheme is that you have immediately fallen into the politician's trap - special interest groups and overcomplication - why should food and clothes be exempt from VAT - and why the first £1000 of heating fuel - is that per person, per adult, per house? what about flats - is it transferable if you move, and if the M-i-L comes and stays for a fortnight can I have 2/52 of her allowance?
There are structural problems with the UK tax system, but it generally works ok.
What about the NHS?
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why should food and clothes be exempt from VAT >>
Basic necessities?
- and why the first £1000 of heating fuel >>
removes the need for Winter fuel allowances.
What about the NHS? >>
As per Mapmaker. But again, perhaps give an annual voucher for you to take to the GP/Dentist you wish to register with.
special interest groups and overcomplication >>
Welcome to simplify as much as you want; the less complicated you can make it, the better. My thoughts were just "quick off the cuff" thoughts, and you or anyone else is free to develop them as suits best.
Edited by jbif on 06/01/2009 at 17:22
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>> why should food and clothes be exempt from VAT >> Basic necessities?
So a £10,000 designer dress is a basic necessity?
>> - and why the first £1000 of heating fuel >> removes the need for Winter fuel allowances.
Why do you need winter fuel allowances?
>> What about the NHS? >> As per Mapmaker. But again perhaps give an annual voucher for you to take to the GP/Dentist you wish to register with.
And if I don't want to register can I cash it in. or what if I register and then move to the other end of the country?
>> special interest groups and overcomplication >> Welcome to simplify as much as you want; the less complicated you can make it the better. My thoughts were just "quick off the cuff" thoughts and you or anyone else is free to develop them as suits best.
Please don't get my comments wrong - I am simply trying to illustrate how complex tax can get as soon as rules are introduced.
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I wasn't advocating removing benefits, or even cutting them at all. I was pointing to the multi-billion, probably trillion pound deficit in the funding of public sector pensions. This cannot posibly be afforded, and the incresing division of society into those with solid gold index-liked pensions, and those whose private pensions have been effectively stolen by government action, is a potential bombshell.
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the multi-billion probably trillion pound deficit in the funding of public sector pensions. This cannot posibly be afforded and the incresing division of society into those with solid gold index-liked pensions and those whose private pensions have been effectively stolen by government .....
What I think is unfair is that the HMRC limits on private pensions are much harsher than the limits on other groups, such as MPs and the armed forces.
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>>What I think is unfair is that the HMRC limits on private pensions are much harsher...
But a pension is effecctively pointless for a higher-rate-taxpaying pensioner.
Yes, you get 40% tax relief on the way in. But you pay 40% tax on the way out again as it's paid to you (if you pay higher-rate tax as a pensioner). There's point in getting 40% relief on the way in and paying 20% tax on the way out, but once you have the limit in your pension (is it 1.5m?) you're getting no benefit from using a pension once you've paid your scheme manager 2% per annum.
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>>What I think is unfair is that the HMRC limits on private pensions are much harsher... But a pension is effecctively pointless for a higher-rate-taxpaying pensioner.
I wasn't talking about tax, I was talking about the maximum amount of pension you're allowed to receive under HMRC rules. In my case (private sector pension) it was two thirds of my pensionable salary (which, incidentally, was "sliced" by an amount equal to the state OAP) after 40 years of service, and the minimum age at which I could have taken a pension was 50. An ex-Navy friend of mine retired at age 40 after 22 years service and immediately received a pension of £5000 p.a., which as a percentage of his salary was way above what I would have been allowed by HMRC after 22 years service. And when he reaches normal retirement age (65?) his pension will be increased in proportion to the salary of an officer of the same rank at that time!
Edited by L'escargot on 07/01/2009 at 12:27
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