I run a small company in commercial/industrial construction, these sectors have collapsed almost completely, we are inundated with calls from men who have been laid off and looking for work
As existing contracts finish there are no new works available for the tradesmen to go onto, because these sites lay off a hundred or two here and there it dosnt make for headlines, but there are estimates in the industry that 200,000 have already been laid off and there are 3 million people in the industry!
I have lived through two previous recessions the early 80's and 90's yet I never saw a contraction like this in either, the scale of slowdown, bankruptcies voluntary liquidations etc is beyond comprehension
|
|
It was he speed of it that's staggering, in the past we've sort of ambled into recession, this time it was off the edge of a cliff - crime stats are rocketing - I reckon this Neighbourhood Policing nonsense will be scrapped as Forces scrabble to respond to mega crime surges - PCSOs' funding is ring-fenced for three years, guess they'll be replaced with real cops once that walk and talk becomes a luxury and an irrelevance.
|
PCSOs' funding is ring-fenced for three years guess they'll be replaced with real cops once that walk and talk becomes a luxury and an irrelevance.
There will have to be a few changes. What's the point of a police area employing say 50 PCSO's at £24k a shot, when you could have 43 real ones for £28K a shot for very similar money...(although I do appreciate police pay increases in increments for a few years afterwards, so you could alter the ratio figures accordingly).
especially when you work out the PCSOs, being civilian staff, cannot be ordered to change shifts to when the demand is needed, cannot be required to attend work on a day off, cannot arrest people, cannot be ordered to remain at work on overtime, don't gain skills in other areas and/or move on to supplement other disciplines.g. CID/ Traffic etc
the work PCSO's currently do, is what police officers used to do i.e. walk a beat and speak to the public....why do it with half measures?
I will state though, that some PCSO's have a commendably 'can do' attitude and have made a big difference, but there again most of the ones like that are the ones who were told to do that job first as 'evidence' for applying to be the real thing i.e. they didn't fit the criteria for immediate recruiting ..... but were recognised as future potential....
|
|
|
|
"So, did demand for water go down? Did people stop flushing their toilets?"
Domestic use is only about 20% of total demand for water. Industry uses far more. I imagine that steel (for cooling), energy (cooling), motor industry, textiles, chemicals, paper making etc use vast amounts for various reasons. Maybe cutbacks in production in these industries are affecting demand? Maybe water co is just cutting back and it would have happened without the credit crunch in the name of efficiency? Maybe they are just using it as "an excuse"?
|
|
|
Beware of the credit crunch being used as an excuse. HJ
Its useful as an excuse to remove deadwood and to make the business leaner.
|
''''It was he speed of it that's staggering, in the past we've sort of ambled into recession, this time it was off the edge of a cliff - crime stats are rocketing - I reckon this Neighbourhood Policing nonsense will be scrapped as Forces scrabble to respond to mega crime surges - PCSOs' funding is ring-fenced for three years, guess they'll be replaced with real cops once that walk and talk becomes a luxury and an irrelevance. ''''
I have a few friend in the force, their views on the effectiveness of the 'specials' or whatever they are called now is unprintable
£25k a year for walking around having a chat
|
>>£25k a year for walking around having a chat
I thought they were volunteers?
(I've had a recent, none too impressive, encounter)
|
|
The PCSO's are on £25k and a fairly bright hampster could pass the entrance 'exam' which is basically an assesment
Edited by malden blue on 31/01/2009 at 22:42
|
|
The Specials are still around and are volunteers, unpaid and have the full range of Police powers.
|
|
|
"a fairly bright hampster could pass the entrance 'exam' "
especially if one of the questions is "How do you spell hamster?"
;-)
|
|
|
|
Special Constables are volunteers, who only get paid 'expenses', they have the same powers as a Constable, but considerably less training. Of old, their uniforms had differences, nowadays they are virtually indentical. In the London area they have been awared the same travel concessions as regular officers, so all of a sudden it's become popular again...how much is free BR/bus/Underground travel worth up to 70 miles o/s London for their commute into their day job..fair few thousands i'd hazard a guess
PCSO's are not Constables, they do have some limited powers e.g 'detain' someone for half an hour, issue some tickets...other than thet they are a visible presence only.
|
|
Sorry my fault :--- back on topic !
|
|
|
"''''It was he speed of it that's staggering,"
It has been warned about for about 5 years and has been prophesied with uncannily accurate detail on some financial websites. Those sources have pointed to a sort of golden parachute which at the time was said to be hiding the coming freefall. The new global economy was just one giant Ponzi scheme and destined for this.
|
|
Mrs P certainly saw it coming which is why we unloaded the 535 in Nov 07, she took other steps (liquidating assets and shifting money to deposits) around the same time which meant we had a "soft landing" - Respect.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
I believe industial use of water has fallen 40%.
Edited by madf on 01/02/2009 at 10:17
|
|
|
|
One of the water companies just announced 300 redundancies. Beware of the credit crunch being used as an excuse. HJ
Interesting that one, the 'water companies' reducing workforce.
I make no secret that the last downturn in early 90's, was actually a HUGE boost to me, as it wasn't long after we opened our yard, to sell vans.
Timing was just when BT changed their working practice & their livery from yellow to grey.
I was buying dozens (no exageration) of good, one owner, low miles, well maintained yellow vans, for a £4-600. Once we'd valeted, & put them through our workshop, fresh MOT, we could still sell for £995 including the VAT & be earning a couple of hundred £££.
& we had a waiting list, more or less, 'cos at the same time, lots of other businesses were reducing numbers, so tradesmen were all starting their out on their own, as their was little chance of getting a job, they could all afford our vehicles!!
The similar thing happened with British Gas - blue & white livery, to light or dark blue = lots affordable stock for me!!
It didn't happen with the elecricity companies, so much, as they were already seperat firms, more or less.
& the only real result I had with water firms, was when Yorkshire Water de-fleeted big time, around the period of them having horrendous water shortages!!
Other water firms, didn't do it though, on same scales. Maybe it's changing!
The real difference, if it were to happen now, though, with any of these utilities, is that so much work is contracted out - you look at the actual name on the vans & you'll see it's A N Other firm, working with A N Other Utility PLC.
& of course, it's a late plate vehicle, on short term lease or exrtended hire, so even when it does have the hire period terminated early, it'll still NOT be a cheap van, in auction!
So unfortunatly, I won't be starting over again.
Maybe I should be feeling really pleased we sold the yard when we did!!
VB
|
I remember vansboy buying a 4 year old ex BT van that had doe only 19k!
£500 + VAT from Dingwall moptor auctions
Fantastic van, fully racked out, caged and a 50mh speed limiter!
|
I remember vansboy buying a 4 year old ex BT van that had doe only 19k!
& Ithought it was only HM Government that spied on my movements!! ;-)
VB
|
|
|
|
One of the water companies just announced 300 redundancies. ...
... Beware of the credit crunch being used as an excuse. HJ >>
This is what the Water Company has to say:
" The company said the recession was reducing its revenue, partly because more customers were unable to pay their bills, and driving up costs, ....
Jobs will be cut will be from all areas of the business, with the bulk of redundancies from support services in Reading and Swindon ... "
Remember that water companies rely on a lot of their income from water and sewerage charges to big businesses, like Honda and Woolworths and MFI.
Also, the Company in question is "foreign" European owned, the owner converts the UK £ income/profit to Euros for reporting on the parent company's stockmarket. So if UK £s convert to fewer Euros, the parent company will look at ways of cutting UK costs.
|
Ty Andros - "I feel sorry for and am saying prayers for the UK as it is headed the way ICELAND is; the economics I have seen are absolutely HORRIFYING. Alistair Darling and Gordon ?Sold the Gold' Brown just this afternoon directed the Bank of England to start BUYING assets; this is also known as ?Printing the Money.? I am sure they wish they had that ?barbarous relic? which was SOLD at the LOWS in 2001. The Bank of England does not have the ability to deal with the enormity of the problem as it is multiples of GDP. Soon UK gilts will crash."
Gordon Brown - "I am like Titian"
|
Gordon Brown - "I am like Titian"
I heard that too. Nice analogy; he's certainly quite the Titian.
|
The report I saw on the BBC about what Brown said today was
Brown: 'No clear map for the crisis'
Which I suppose is politician speak for 'I dont know what Im doing'
Edited by malden blue on 01/02/2009 at 00:08
|
Brown: 'No clear map for the crisis'
Which I suppose is politician speak for 'I dont know what Im doing'
So he doesn't know where he is
He doesn't know where he's going
He doesn't know what he's doing
He's single handedly bankrupting the country attempting to cling onto power
No one elected him
He'll soon be out and drawing a fat pension courtesy of you and me
How did British democracy come to this?
|
>>How did British democracy come to this?
Aww, we can't put all the blame on poor old Gordie now....
After all it was Thatcher and Major who 'de-regulated' our financial system and built up public debt and the psbr to the point that it is all now royally goosed and is 'goosing' us. Gordie is just a copy cat ;)
Those British Gas/British Telecom/etc. etc. shares aren't proving much use now eh. Where's Sid when you really need him ;)
Edited by R40 on 01/02/2009 at 07:37
|
Easy to criticise, not so easy to come up with viable ideas.
Anyway, this is heading back into politics - please refrain.
smokie, Moderator
|
I expect that the economy will decline 5-10% over the next 2-3 years and flatline for the next 10.
Some Government is going to have to cut Government spending by around £120billion a year to start bringing the budget into balance. (The prospect of a base rate of income tax of 55% would be rather unpopular).
£120B is around 20% of the Government's declared spending (excluding PFI).
(I exclude bank bailout expenditure from these figures).
That kind of cut will mean radical changes to pensions, the NHS and the Welfare State as we know it. Put bluntly they are unfundable.
And having nearly 3 million people paid for being disabled will be one of the areas most affected.
I anticipate large scale social disruption which will make the current strikes over TOTAL and foreign labour look like a picnic.
I am in a cheerful mood today so I am not minded to share my other predictions.
As for petrol and diesel taxes, they are planned to rise this year. I anticipate further rises to attempt to bridge the funding gap. I anticipate growing protests on that as well.
|
I expect that the economy will decline 5-10% over the next 2-3 years and flatline for the next 10.
decline by 3-5% over the next 18 months, and increase back to growth in 24months, and recover losses after 4 years.
Some Government is going to have to cut Government spending by around £120billion a year to start bringing the budget into balance. (The prospect of a base rate of income tax of 55% would be rather unpopular).
In other words go back to where we were before gordon started throwing money around to be popular.
£120B is around 20% of the Government's declared spending (excluding PFI). (I exclude bank bailout expenditure from these figures).
Government will rcover bank bailout form selling bank shares back and reducing publicx ownerhsip.That kind of cut will mean radical changes to pensions the NHS and the Welfare State as we know it. Put bluntly they are unfundable.
They always have been in the form trhey were devised.
|
|
I can think of well over a million people who are already deeply affected by the Crunch - anyone who lives/works overseas but has their savings or income in GBP. Prices for everything have gone up 25-30% in barely 3 months. And overseas property owners can't sell their houses and come home, because housing markets are scuppered everywhere. These people might not be in great debt, per se, but are suffering nonetheless.
|
''''''''''After all it was Thatcher and Major who 'de-regulated' our financial system and built up public debt and the psbr to the point that it is all now royally goosed and is 'goosing' us. Gordie is just a copy cat ;)'''''''''''''''
Only it wasnt R40, the malor deregulation happened with Gordon Brown as chancellor when he devolved power from the BOE in 03, read Paul Masons blog on the BBC, and this current lot have borrowed more money than all the previous givernments put together in hsitory
A section of it:
Now, who is "we" in this "wea culpa"? Clearly Lord Turner's predecessors at the FSA, Calum McCarthy and John Tiner. In addition, Mervyn King the governor of the Bank of England. Also the people who designed the tri-partite regulatory system: Gordon Brown, Ed Balls and Gus O'Donnell. Once you put names to this "we" it reads as a very strong criticism of the Labour government and its chosen regulators.
Both the Bank of England and the FSA have the statutory responsibility to maintain financial stability. They failed. The statutory responsibility was conferred on them by the Treasury. It, by implication failed.
Edited by malden blue on 01/02/2009 at 13:31
|
|
Thanks for clarifying that (it what I believed as well) anyway can we go back to motoring ?
|
:-) point taken
personally I would like to have seen 1/100th of the money the govt has spent on bank bailouts being given to a British research centre to design patent then have built the electric car of the future
surely we as one of the most inventive nations in history can come up with a better idea than sticking 3,000 laptop batteries in a car that then has to be recharged after 100 miles!
|
|
True - Clive Sinclair had a C5 long before Citreon - oh!
|
Only it wasnt R40 the malor (sic) deregulation happened with Gordon Brown as chancellor when he devolved power from the BOE in 03
Sorry to sound like a pantomime, but oh yes it was - the first and thus obviously the major de-regulations happened well before Blair and Brown and in the time of Thatcher and Major ........... that is how people got so £££ happy. Among other things Building Societies became banks and millions of savers thought they had made much through the dividends, except now they realise perhaps not ;)
:)
Edited by R40 on 01/02/2009 at 14:28
|
|
The only upside to the credit crunch is you don't get people banging on about how much their houses are worth any more... ;-)
|
Sorry to sound like a pantomime, but oh yes it was ..
This is my alternative view: Oh no, it wasn't.
Callaghan, Healey, Benn, Kinnock, Foot et.al. and their Union cronies left the country in a mess.
Thatcher and Major sorted it all out, and left Blair and Brown a superb legacy, which Brown squandered.
Without the Thatcher/Major era, the likes of Nissan, Toyota, Honda, and BMW-MINI would not have been around today at all.
The problem with R40's claims is that it is easy for him to blame past Governments, but it is not easy for him to see how terrible it would have been otherwise.
The "live-life-to-the max on credit" culture is to blame. It is prevalent in the current generation of teenagers, twenty-somethings, and thirty-somethings. It can be blamed on the failure of their parents to teach them the virtue of savings and living within your means. Very much Thatcherite views.
|
|
I do agree jbif, while no fan of Thatcher or Major, especially at the time (but was mostly too young to vote until the 1997 election anyway). The fact is that New Labour inherited the economy in excellent shape and have spent 12 years putting it into the worst shape (and probably irrecoverably so) in anyone's living memory.
|
|
Let's have a wafer thin link to motoring !
|
Let's have a wafer thin link to motoring !
That's why I slipped in Toyota, Nissan, etc. as I thought they may be worth a chunky kitkat.
|
|
Just had one of them ! Not aimed at you though. Back on Motoring or its scalpel time.
|
|
One of the water companies just announced 300 redundancies. So did demand for water go down? Did people stop flushing their toilets? I don't think so.
Actually, I think you'll find that Water usage in Industry is Huge.
Steelworks use Gallons of the stuff, car component, in fact any machined component for any insutry also use vast amounts of water to cool down the process.
Textiles also use significant amounts of water, pottery companies (Denby, Waterford Wedgewood, which recently went into receivership)
My industry (Healthcare) literally throws it down the drain to make pure water, which is itself eventually thrown down the drain.
When there is a significant downturn in manufacturing industry, water revenues head south.
A typical Household bill pails in comparison to big industry spend on water.
Falling water usage results in falling water revenues which - guess what - will result in reduction in staff, to keep both the directors and shareholders happy.
Demand for water has fallen - don't be sad - apparently we've been worried about supplies for years, remember 3 years ago when reservoirs where at rock bottom?
|
|
|
So did demand for water go down? Did people stop flushing their toilets?
There are many ways to economise on water, as everyone knows. My biggest single usage is washing my car.
|
My biggest single usage is washing my car.
SQ
I searched my records and on the occasion I measured (via the meter) the amount of water I'd used washing my car it was 0.227 cubic metres or 50 gallons.
Edited by Dynamic Dave on 10/02/2009 at 10:21
|
|
|
|
|
.
Edited by L'escargot on 16/02/2009 at 07:33
|
|
|
|
