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Ellesmere Port - second that. It's been struggling since at least 2006 with large job losses & threatened closure. Combine that with its GM parent troubles...
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"Bloke in the pub" last night said Swindon (Honda) but couldn't provide any evidence for it so I have to suppose it was just speculation. Like many Japanese firms (my employer included), Honda has quite a strong corporate social responsibility policy and have repeatedly stated their commitment to Swindon over the years. I would be surprised if they'd just pull out as that's not how the Japanese tend to do business, in my experience.
I would tend to agree with woodbines.
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From the scores on the doors looks like Vauxhall Ellesmere.
Divide and conquer by GM Europe
SAAB go to Swedish Govt - no payout from taxpayer - administration
Opel go to German Govt................
Vauxhall go to UK Govt..................
Ellesmere was reputedly in the firing line for years as a possible closure.
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TBH I am suprised that ellesmere port has survived this long. Only government bail outs and financial assistance has kept it going for years.
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From what I've been hearing it's likely to be the Opel/Vauxhall plant.
HJ
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It's unlikely to be a Japanese-owned plant. They have little capacity on mainland Europe so will want to keep the UK plants for the upturn when it happens, as it will. Plus with a weak pound, it's cheap to screw cars together here compared to elsewhere.
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The average monthly car production worker salary in the Czech Republic is 850 Euros. So even though Sterling is 40% down against the Euro, UK car workers are a lot more expensive.
HJ
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But still cheaper than western europe or japan. I get your point though, I would imagine it would cost buttons to set up in eastern europe given the state of their economies at the moment and it's relatively cheap to fire workers in the UK compared to other EU countries.
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The Insignia was surely the clue - no mention of Vauxhall or Opel; just an easily changed "insignia" on the front/rear
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The average monthly car production worker salary in the Czech Republic is 850 Euros.
Though that sounds a minimal wage, i'd be interested to know just what the 'takehome' would be on such a wage, and then more importantly what the comparative local taxation (the council tax as its known till its renamed again) and likely housing costs, electricity/gas/water etc would be.
Could we see a time when wages and conditions here become so bad that we may well find ourselves attractive as a producer again.
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Recent report on Indian car industry:
"Labour costs are 10% of what they would be in Japan [15% of UK?], accounting for just 2% of the cost of the car"
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One of the reasons cited for possible closure was a serious lack of cash by the company concerned, which is not so much a problem for Honda, Toyota et al as for Vauxhall and its GM parent.
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Though that sounds a minimal wage i'd be interested to know just what the 'takehome' would be on such a wage and then more importantly what the comparative local taxation (the council tax as its known till its renamed again) and likely housing costs electricity/gas/water etc would be.
Can't give you figures but I've stayed a lot over there in the past few years outside Prague in the country (the plant is out in the "sticks" about 70km away) and its quite cheap to live compared with over here, though not as cheap as it was!... the main exception are electrical goods which are not that much different to over here. Also like many parts of Europe many people rent rather than buy their homes. I'd have thought that 850 Euros would be quite reasonable wage in the town where the factory is based.
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The average monthly car production worker salary in the Czech Republic is 850 Euros. So even though Sterling is 40% down against the Euro UK car workers are a lot more expensive.
We're disgusting! Any UK workers in the Backroom (including HJ!) care to volunteer to take a salary cut? It would be good for your employer, and that's what this is all about. Come on guys and gals, step up!
Edited by L'escargot on 21/02/2009 at 11:58
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I thought many already have via a cut in their hours and no overtime?
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I thought many already have via a cut in their hours and no overtime?
Never mind the others, the anonymous great unwashed. What about a Backroomer? What about one of those who give their sanctimonious views on the subject in this forum?
Edited by L'escargot on 21/02/2009 at 12:06
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volunteer to take a salary cut?
IMO, that's exactly what has to happen sooner or later - and if it happens sooner, then, IMO that can only be a good thing.
By our expectations of a standard of living, and of state provision on a lavish scale, we have priced ourselves out of many markets. I suspect it will take a long time for the truth of this to become evident, and to become palatable in the minds of the electorate.
There will need to be a re-adjustment of our expectations, and a dramatic pruning of state provision, expensive employment legislation, maybe even a temporary opt out of our European committments for the purpose of re-structuring.
Yes, like many seem to think, we could prop up ailing firms with government cash - but that particular feast will be followed by a very nasty hangover - which already is going to last for generations before the debt taken on by the one eyed Scottish idiot is re-payed.
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We're disgusting! Any UK workers in the Backroom (including HJ!) care to volunteer to take a salary cut? It would be good for your employer and that's what this is all about. Come on guys and gals step up!
yup we all will as long as we dont have to pay for your pension. So we will cut our wages by 50% and take away your pension - hows that?
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I have in effect taken a cut, ban on overtime, and not much work going through, so non-existent bonus. Oh well... at least my bill arent going up......
(opens gas bill ) Oh..... looks like ive had the heating on, thats gone up!
lets go for a drive.. how much for petrol again!!!
well... at least I still have a job..... for now.
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yup we all will as long as we dont have to pay for your pension. So we will cut our wages by 50% and take away your pension - hows that?
You're missing the point, probably deliberately.
A few years before I retired I had to take a 20% salary cut, and move to another location in another town. It was either that or be out of a job.
Regarding my pension, the bulk of it comes from my occupational pension scheme, into which I voluntarily paid heavily. During one period I was paying the HMRC limit of 15% of my salary, to ensure that my pension would be as high as the HMRC would allow me to have.
The salary you get will have little effect on my income. I made, and paid for, my own arrangements.
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My 40% taxes pay for your health service, your state pension. Your occupational pension is invested in my company, and companies that loads of other people on here work for - and we all work hard so your pension gets dividends. My spending power makes profits for companies that your pension is invested in.
My efforts and work and the collective rest of us are what keep you in your shell, any way you want to cut it, so dont give me this I owe nothing to anyone carp.
Edited by Altea Ego on 21/02/2009 at 12:37
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Altea Ego, stop throwing your toys out of your pram.
To get back to the point, I think Number_Cruncher is right.
">> volunteer to take a salary cut?
IMO, that's exactly what has to happen sooner or later - and if it happens sooner, then, IMO that can only be a good thing."
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and I drag you back to the point - if you cut your pension.
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This is all vastly off topic, but I would add that there was a letter in the paper from a holier-than-thou someone on a public service pension recently where he spouted about having paid top whack for his pension, and that those of us in private sector should do the same.
Just for information, I have been paying into schemes since I was 20 (when I joined the Coal Board pension scheme, supposedly one of the best in the land at the time). For about 12 years I've been steadily increasing my percentage by at least 1% in most years. There was also a time when my employer would match whatever I was putting in, but they've gone back to a flat 5% contribution (as of 2000 I think). Whatever, I'd have been hard pushed to contribute any more.
Yet my "fund" from which my annuity is bought (for that is how it works these days, no longer index-linked pensions) appears to lose each year, even in the good years. I shudder to think what it's looking like now. Last year it would buy me an annuity of around £12000 a year at age 65, assuming x percent investment growth and y % salary growth, neither of which are remotely likely even in good times. Peanuts.
Yes, I am very envious of state employees and pensioners. Able to jack it in at 55 and take a reduced pension, large lump sums, and if you don't want to go that far, often a massive redundancy option. Not having HR down your throat because you've taken two days off sick in a 6 month period. Not being expected to work extended hours with no overtime or bonus. Often considerably better holiday arrangements and working conditions. And salaries are no longer all that shabby either.
Having been with my current employer for over 21 years now, all I can expect is statutory minimum redundancy payments and little prospect of any more work until I am pensionable age. That's how it is for many, outside the public sector.
Now back to motoring please! :-)
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Smokie I think you might be a little misinformed/out of date...
>Able to jack it in at 55
Er, no... I'll be working til I'm 63 if I stay where I am now. They've done away with the 80 year rule.
>Often a massive redundancy option.
Not in the public sector. We're going through this at the moment. There is no redundancy option, only redeployment. Take a job on the same scale, regardless of whether it's a job you can do (comparable jobs to mine are all finance managers - I don't do maths!) or leave.
>Not having HR down your throat because you've taken two days off sick in a 6 month period.
Actually I think we're more strict in the public sector. My least favourite part of my job is having to warn my team about their sickness when I've seen that they are genuinely ill. It only takes one rough patch to put you way into the cause for concern.
>Not being expected to work extended hours with no overtime or bonus.
You don't get bonuses in the public sector, and you'll be lucky to get overtime these days. Increasingly it's flexi time so in theory you can take the hours back, but you're limited to 12 days a year, with no time to take those days. So the hours build up and up until you're actually working for free.
>Often considerably better holiday arrangements and working conditions.
Holidays are better, I'll give you that one! But the salaries are lower. ;-)
>And salaries are no longer all that shabby either.
I'd earn £10-15k more doing my job in the private sector... but I love my job! :)
(Yes, you can moderate me, as this has nothing to do with motoring!)
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My point was why an old UK plant was closing down and not one of the brand new plants in Czechoslovakia. Labour is much cheaper still in India, China and Thailand, and new plants can be built to be robotised (Hyundai, KIA) or labour-intensive, depending on the cost of that labour. An old labour intensive plant in a country with high labour costs is likely to go first in a worldwide recession. (The Hyundai plant in Nosovice has one giant robot that attaches both body sides and the roof to the floorpan in a single operation.)
HJ
Edited by Honestjohn on 21/02/2009 at 14:49
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Your occupational pension is invested in my company .........
Tell me the name of your company and I'll tell you whether or not that statement is true!
Edited by L'escargot on 23/02/2009 at 07:05
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"The salary you get will have little effect on my income. I made, and paid for, my own arrangements"
I'm receiving from two occupational pension schemes (sounds good, but it isn't). Reading the annual reports of the schemes it is clear that the employers and I weren't paying enough. In fact, the current employers and employees are paying much higher contributions than I ever paid - employees now 10%+ v. my 2%; whilst the employer in one of them is paying 45% of current salaries in an effort to catch up. At the time of a credit crunch that's a big burden. It appears that everybody, except the actuaries, realised the population was living longer. Another profession, alongside the bankers, who've failed the nation.
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> Everybody, except the actuaries, realised the population was living longer.
I'm pretty sure the actuaries knew about the upward trend in life expectancy. Perhaps they didn't foresee the large number of people given their pensions at just over 50 (as I was) from the late 1980s onwards, instead of working until 60 or more. The 'normal' retirement age where I worked was 62, but almost no-one stayed that long except the managers. So the pension pot was being burnt at both ends, as it were.
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its not all doom and gloom my boss yesterday gave me a 100% payrise, shame im a volunteer worker but it was nice to have the offer :-)
Edited by Honestjohn on 21/02/2009 at 14:49
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I don't want to be off topic too much but I am too and feeling the crunch now, went from my busiest ever Jan to my quietest Feb not exactly sure what is happening but my dads business has gone the same way.
I am also finding very hard to find a car, the cars are selling very quickly (on the sub £2k market) but there is limited supply because people are not upgrading.
My business relies on mainly on the higher education industry so it should not be bad yet but if I lived in an area which relies on the car industry I would be very very worried.
Edited by Honestjohn on 21/02/2009 at 14:49
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Read what's happening to a lot of RHD cars in my latest auction report. They aren't being bought by Brits for Brits.
HJ
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Today's [2 march 09] auction report
www.honestjohn.co.uk/news/item.htm?id=5817
says "With so many cars now being sucked out of the UK market into Ireland and other RHD counties due to the weakness of Sterling, prices here continue to escalate.".
That makes me wonder how long can the other RHD countries continue to take from the UK market before they become saturated with the cheap stuff and end up with more cars than they can sell?
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Halewood must be pretty quiet these days - Jaguar can't give away X-Types and the Freelander can't be shifting in great numbers either.
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...Jaguar can't give away X-Types...
They could to me.
One of the posters on here who looks at the sales figures said Jag did quite well in the last lot to be published.
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And me . If they are thinking of doing so, a 2.2 diesel estate in sport premium trim with racing green bodywork and tan leather would be just dandy thanks. I can be contacted through this site....... Oh and could I have a sunroof please ?
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I take it you have many spare hours to waste trekking back and forth to the dealers in an effort to get one electrical problem after another sorted out. ?
saw one outside a dealers last year with all sorts of angry posters pinned to it and what I presume was the owner, handing out fliers along the lines of Jag sucks.
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Mr X
Could you supply some supporting evidence for this statement?
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Sorry, this should have appeared on the above post.
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I give up!!!!
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At risk of incurring the wrath of moderation (the title does include 'credit crunch after all!) - I think there'll be many a shock coming to pension rights holders in the coming years - and not just propective holders but those who've been retired several years already.
At heart of course, a pension is simply a contract between a pensioner, a pension provider & the govt. (the govt. part being that it offers adavantageous tax breaks for pensions).
With so many 'contracts' of this nature already strained beyond breaking point - a bust pension provider after all is just like a bust bank - that I foresee legislation allowing pension providers, in extremis, to break or modify their current & historical annuity obligations - and not in a 'good' way either.
No-one is safe from this depression - not even those apparently safe beyond reach of unemployment.
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Lets not call it a depression yet, so far it is just a recession it is important for all our sanity that the two are not confused. When the heating is turned off and the food runs out then I will start to think it is a depression for now though it just means a couple less holidays and a few less pints for me at least.
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When the heating is off and food runs out it is a disaster.
Our much loved and savior of the world Mr Broon says it is a depression now.
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Ive had a very quiet Februsary too Rattle, but only because I had a self-imposed 2 week break due to the wretched weather!
Thankfully it looking to be a good year so far. That sthe great thing about having a large number of 'employers' being self-employed.
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I give up!!!!
If you change the view to threaded, all will be revealed.
www.honestjohn.co.uk/forum/post/index.htm?t=72418&...t
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Quote:..""When the heating is turned off and the food runs out then I will start to think it is a depression""
Around November / December 09.
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I was out with some friends last night 4 of whom are running small companies. The uncanny similarity was that all of us are saying the same. End of March is as long as we dare leave it before being forced into making redundancies, ditching the offices and trying to salvage some of the business by working from home in the hope that we may be able to take back some of the redundant staff.
For my business December turnover was down 50%; January turnover was down 70%; February turnover is expected to be around the same as January.
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The astonishing thing is that readers/website visitors asking me about buying newer or new cars has not diminished at all. If anything my mailbag is bigger. And on Friday it was very hard to find a parking spot at BCA Blackbushe at 10.15am. That said, it is difficult to actually 'see' a downturn even as big as 20%. There are still cars on the roads. Customers in supermarkets. Buyers at auctions (even if buying for the RHD export trade). I was briefly in Phuket in December (a week after Suvarnabhumi re-opened) and the beaches were packed, in the sense that, after midday it was very hard to find a sunbed to hire, yet tourism was supposed to be down 40%. (This is not to diminish in any way the pain that Pica is obviously feeling.)
HJ
Edited by Honestjohn on 22/02/2009 at 12:57
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A clear case of not believing everything you see, read and hear in the press. I was in an estate agents the other afternoon, they were busy - plenty of mid-range houses shifting as punters look to deposit cash away from untrusted banks. Our own limited conveyancing work was picking up at the start of the month.
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I know HJ. I was speaking to my brother in law this morning. Both he and his wife are in reasonably well paid but high risk ( economically speaking ) jobs. He currently has a 525d saloon but is going today to look at replacing it with a new or nearly new 5 series estate. He admits that would need finance but seems oblivious to the implications of that given the way things are.
Brave ? Stupid ? Naive ? Confident ? goodness knows anymore
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The truck industry feels boom and bust effects very quickly and none any quicker than the car movement industry in the present situation.
I assure all here that the roads are unbelievably free from trucks in general, movements are severely reduced and car carrying vehicle numbers have halved compared with 12 months ago.
Many will be pleased by that but its a fair reflection of whats happening.
Remember seeing 50 tesco/morrisons/sainsbury/Lidl etc trucks means little, food is needed whatever, take note of how many trucks carrying non foods you see in a normal day at the moment (remember many of those foreign trucks with tilts and fridge trailers will be bringing food in too).
All over the country there are rows of car transporters parked up, some minor hiccups here and there, some of the companies are taking on a few staff but any doing so are recruiting on temporary contracts only (I month to instant hire situations).
Chaps i know who have lost their jobs last year have averaged 1 or 2 days work only per week since Christmas.
I'm not talking about idiots here, but good pro drivers, many old school, who never in my well over 30 years in the game would have struggled to find work.
Some companies who pay poorly or treat their drivers none too well have had a boon, as they've been getting drivers of a quality they wouldn't have seen often but who are forced into doing anything to bring in a wage.
Used cars do seem to be selling well at the moment, many dealers report the same to me, and there are one or two selling a few new ones too (many are motability sales though), but i haven't seen any real upturn in work yet.
I can't see new cars selling in any great future numbers in Britain anyway, salaries across many industries will be cut, there just won't be the money to spare.
Long slog from all the evidence i see.
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Any business we are losing at the moment is down to the banks refusing to lend money, or make finance available. It's as simple as that. We have willing punters with sound businesses and credit histories who can't finance new kit. We are turning people away for no reason other than this.
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Talking to a few people this week. House rentals are very strong - rents are falling due to saturated market with people renting their houses out rather than selling them, but actual demand is high - one rental agent I know is coining it atm.
Country estate I know, is making big cutbacks, but giving generous redundancy packages - most are going self-employed as a result - many infact already were moonlighting outside of work hours doing the same type of work. From what ive heard, these cutbacks had been slated aslong ago as 2007 as the needs of the estate had changed, so whether it is directly related remains to be seen.
I have many retired customers and having spoken at length with some of them, they seem to have no fears about any recession and ive just worked out that over my entire customer base, 30% have ordered or taken delivery of a new car in the last 3 months - not cheap new cars either.
Gambling, which my misses works in, is so far unaffected and they are taking on staff - no cutbacks whatsoever, but then alot of that is income from retirees again.
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I feel for pica, and others in the same boat.
I think its mostly self employed that are more aware of how it can all fail quickly!
Those in "secure" jobs are probably thinking they are ok, but might get hit hard and quickly, albeit unawares!
I think long term, related to average wages, the crucnch is going to thin out the middle management levels more (long term) than most other levels. Whilst the low level working man is getting hit now (and its hurting a lot of them) they will be needed for any business to build back up if/when it does. Middle management once trimmed may disappear for years. Not necessarily a bad thing (unless you are the person made jobless) to bring down the cost of manufacturing here.
On a personal level, last year was my 2nd best for about 6 years, and this ytd is actually better than this time last year; but I do deal generally with 3+ year old cars. Probably people cutting back on servicing etc is increasing repair work needed? Thats what seems to be the difference between my work this year and same time last year.
But I am well aware it could die overnight so thats why I am working 7 days a week, as many hours as needed currently. Take it while its there is my current motto.
Edited by yorkiebar on 22/02/2009 at 15:32
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Despite some weasel words from our leader about the tax man and the vat man being made aware of the present difficulties and being asked to tread a little more softly , they are still giving the self employed and the small business no leeway what so ever. I wonder how they are treating the major car companies ?
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Apart from VAT and PAYE, no car company will pay any Corporation Tax for the next 3-4 years due to losses.
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Except tesco, morrisons, sainsbury, shell, BP, powergen, stagecoach, - need i go on?
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I dispair
I thought Honda , Swindon but Ellesmere Port is a good bet. It's an old fashioned factory with a long history of drop of the hat walk outs.
No it has not, How long have you worked in Ellesmere Port. Far more likely for plants in Europe to walk out at a drop of a hat. As all plants supply each other pressed steel it can get a bit tight.
Ellesmere Port - second that. It's been struggling since at least 2006 with large job losses & threatened closure. Combine that with its GM parent troubles..
"Large job Losses", as with any new model in the early stages take up tends to be high, so a third shift is introduced, as the models life draws to an end and sales decline so do jobs. Its the natural cycle of business.
"TBH I am suprised that ellesmere port has survived this long. Only government bail outs and financial assistance has kept it going for years".
Do you actually think this is exclusive to Ellesmere Port, All governments provide some financial aid to their car industries, state aid is rather small compared to the bigger picture. Far more important is reducing cost per car, and this is achieved in many ways, Logistics, suppliers, quality, line rate, pay and other incentive schemes. to name just a few.
So go on, and continue to talk down our car industry. Its great to be British
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